Sparks are flying everywhere. The ship is shaking from a barrage of enemy fire.
“If my calculations are correct, there is a 0.0243% chance of that plan succeeding!”, the rational character exclaims.
“Never tell me the odds!”, says the charismatic leader. The plan succeeds.
Similar situations happen episode after episode, improbable plans succeeding one after another, and the rational character never seems to think:
“Huh. I am really bad at estimating probabilities.”